← Card Merchant Ponsonby - RDO STore Champs
Water AlliesTier 1
at Card Merchant Ponsonby - RDO STore Champs
decks
1
(10.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
3
2-0-1
overall winrate
83.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.6%
avg ELO +2.7 per match
expected value
56.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1513
· median 1513
· range 1513–1513
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1159
Q1 1222
Q3 1408
1513
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 20.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 10.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.6% | -3.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +8.0 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.5% | +4.0 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Allies decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
